Thursday, August 20/06:16:59 ET
Pre-marketTo open3:13:01
Politics · Fed · government
Minutes are a hawkish hold. Jackson Hole is the event.
July minutes are out. The committee held 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan wanted a 25bp hike. Core PCE is 3.3%. They flagged equity valuations near dot-com-era premia on AI enthusiasm, and they named AI-infrastructure financing as a vulnerability. Tariff pass-through is described as largely complete; energy from the Middle East conflict is the other supply shock. That is a hawkish-leaning hold, not a cut. TLT +0.00% on the session. Dollar -0.23%. Gold +0.00% — still the policy hedge.
The call
Do not add equity beta on a 9–3 hold. Hold gold as the policy hedge. Wait for Warsh.
Chair
Kevin Warsh
In the job since May 22
Funds rate
3.50–3.75%
Held since December 2025
Inflation
Core PCE 3.3% (June)
Unemployment 4.2%
July vote
9–3 hold (July 29)
Green hold · red wanted a hike (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan)
Policy path
Today
Minutes
Aug 27–29
Jackson Hole
Sep 4
Jobs
Sep 11
CPI
Sep 15–16
FOMC + SEP
Nov 3
Midterms
What the Fed is anticipated to do
Base case is hold. Hike is the tail the hawks keep alive. Cut is politics, not the committee.
Cut
The White House wants it. The data do not. Core PCE 3.3% is not a cut. Do not price one on a speech.
Hold (base)
Hold 3.50–3.75% at the September 15–16 FOMC unless the data force a move.
Hike (tail)
Three dissenters already wanted +25bp in July. Minutes: a hike is needed if inflation does not cool. Hot jobs (Sep 4) or hot CPI (Sep 11) reopen it.
Claims tomorrow 8:30am, then Jackson Hole Aug 27–29, then jobs Sep 4 and CPI Sep 11.
What the government is doing
White House
WatchThe administration wants easier policy. Warsh has not pre-committed and dropped forward guidance. A public fight with the Chair is a gold bid and a duration hit.
Next
Keep the volume down into Jackson Hole. Any rate-cut demand the morning of the speech is noise — trade the Chair, not the tweet.
Market
Gold and TLT first. Equities wobble if it looks like a Fed-independence story.
Treasury / fiscal
RiskDeficit is still wide. Bessent is funding more in bills. The 10-year is the tell, not the speech. Tax-cut law adds to the decade's borrowing.
Next
Watch the term premium into September refunding. If TLT leaks while stocks hold, fiscal is the story, not the Fed.
Market
More issuance = higher long rates. That cheapens duration and can cap equity multiples even if the funds rate is unchanged.
Tariffs / trade
RiskSupreme Court blocked IEEPA emergency tariffs. Plan B is other statutes — product-specific, time-limited. Minutes say past pass-through is largely done.
Next
A fresh round is the inflation veto on a September cut. Watch executive actions, not campaign talk.
Market
Sticky core PCE, a firmer dollar, and import-sensitive earnings. Gold hates a dollar bid from this.
Congress / midterms
WatchNovember 3. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate. Affordability, tariffs, and immigration are the ballot.
Next
Markets usually fade election night and trade the composition the next session. Gridlock is not a crash.
Market
The 2027 policy path for taxes, spending, and Fed independence runs through who holds the gavel — not through one print.
How it hits the book
Equities
Do not addMinutes called out AI valuations and leverage. That is a veto on chasing SMH/QQQ into Warsh, not an order to dump a core index you already own.
Gold
Hold the metalPolicy uncertainty and a Chair who will not pre-commit is the bid. A hawkish Jackson Hole is the veto. GLD is the hedge, not GDX.
Bitcoin
Rails, not the coinJackson Hole's theme is financial innovation and payments. That can bid the wrappers (IBIT, CRCL). The coin still needs $60k. Do not confuse a symposium with a halving.
Dollar / yields
Hawks have a voteThree dissenters for a hike is not a majority, but it is a tell. 10-year 4.65%. A Warsh surprise that sounds tighter bids DXY and cheapens TLT.
Would bid the tape
Would hit the tape
Looking forward
Thu Aug 27
Jackson Hole opens
Kansas City Fed symposium. Theme: financial innovation — payments and policy.
Fri Aug 28 · ~10am ET
Warsh address
The policy-signal day. Gold, TLT, and DXY will tell you what he said before the headline does.
Fri Sep 4 · 8:30am
Employment situation
Payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings. A hot wage print reopens hike talk.
Fri Sep 11 · 8:30am
CPI (August)
Core is the number. Headline is the headline. This print writes the SEP.
Tue Sep 15 · 2:00pm
FOMC + SEP
Highest-volatility two days of the quarter. Dots matter more than the 25bp.
Into the presser
White House vs the Chair
Trump wants lower rates. Warsh has made inflation the primary concern. Any public fight is a gold bid and a duration hit.
Q4
Tariff / trade path
Minutes say past tariff pass-through is largely done. A new round is the inflation veto. Watch executive actions, not speeches.
Tue Nov 3
US midterms
All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats. Affordability, tariffs, immigration. Trade the composition of Congress the next session — not election night.
Tue Oct 27
October FOMC
No SEP. Statement language still moves rates. First meeting after the inflation prints that follow Jackson Hole.
Tue Dec 8
December FOMC + SEP
Last dots of the year. The 2027 path gets written here unless the midterms rewrite fiscal first.
During the day
US Treasury Just Doubled Size Of Liquidity Support Buyback — El-Erian Says Move Is More About Possibility Of Broader Deployment Of Yield Curve Control
Following the development, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by nearly six basis points to 4.65% while the 20-year yield fell by nine basis points to 5.18%.
Headline reads as a bid — flow, product, or demand.
Did Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Just Save the Bond Market? Probably Not — Here’s What Traders Need to Know.
Inside the Treasury Department announcement that temporarily calmed the longer end of the yield curve.
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
Inverse Treasury ETFs Likely to Shine Amid Rising Bond Yields
Rising oil prices, inflation fears and higher Treasury yields are creating a favorable backdrop for inverse Treasury ETFs.
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
Is the Small-Cap Surge a Trend or Temporary Rotation?
<p>Small-caps lagged their large-cap peers for over a decade in an environment dominated by the Fed put, failing to manifest any long lasting outperformance. With so much now changed, can small-cap performance this year manage to establish a longer-term trend or will it too prove to just be a temporary rotation? Find out what the industry experts think
Headline reads as a bid — flow, product, or demand.
U.S. Dollar to Slip Ahead? ETFs in Focus
The U.S. dollar could face downside risks as cooling inflation and softer jobs data reduce Fed rate-hike bets. Here are ETF strategies to follow.
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
Cooling Inflation Likely to Aid These ETF Areas
Cooling inflation and weaker job data ease Fed hike bets, but Hormuz tensions increase oil risks. See how QQQ, IWM and TLT may respond.
Headline reads as a hit — outflows, policy, or risk-off.
What Happens to a Bond ETF's Price When the Fed Cuts Rates -- Using the Actual Historical Data
Short-term notes tend to be highly influenced by the Federal Reserve. Long-term bonds have been responding to something else.
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
BlackRock’s Treasury Fund TLT Falls to 22-Year Low
Rising yields on long-term Treasurys pushed the largest long-term bond fund, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), to a 22-year low.
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
Tomorrow is claims at 8:30am, then the grind into Jackson Hole. Do not reposition the book on tonight's minutes. Warsh speaks next week. Gold and duration still hedge the path; do not add equity beta because the hawks lost the vote.