Monday, October 12/08:39:19 ET
Pre-marketTo open50:41
Politics · Fed · government
Minutes are a hawkish hold. Jackson Hole is the event.
July minutes are out. The committee held 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan wanted a 25bp hike. Core PCE is 3.3%. They flagged equity valuations near dot-com-era premia on AI enthusiasm, and they named AI-infrastructure financing as a vulnerability. Tariff pass-through is described as largely complete; energy from the Middle East conflict is the other supply shock. That is a hawkish-leaning hold, not a cut. TLT -0.00% on the session. Dollar +0.21%. Gold +0.00% — still the policy hedge.
The call
Do not add equity beta on a 9–3 hold. Hold gold as the policy hedge. Wait for Warsh.
Chair
Kevin Warsh
In the job since May 22
Funds rate
3.50–3.75%
Held since December 2025
Inflation
Core PCE 3.3% (June)
Unemployment 4.2%
July vote
9–3 hold (July 29)
Green hold · red wanted a hike (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan)
Policy path
Today
Minutes
Aug 27–29
Jackson Hole
Sep 4
Jobs
Sep 11
CPI
Sep 15–16
FOMC + SEP
Nov 3
Midterms
What the Fed is anticipated to do
Base case is hold. Hike is the tail the hawks keep alive. Cut is politics, not the committee.
Cut
The White House wants it. The data do not. Core PCE 3.3% is not a cut. Do not price one on a speech.
Hold (base)
Hold 3.50–3.75% at the September 15–16 FOMC unless the data force a move.
Hike (tail)
Three dissenters already wanted +25bp in July. Minutes: a hike is needed if inflation does not cool. Hot jobs (Sep 4) or hot CPI (Sep 11) reopen it.
Claims tomorrow 8:30am, then Jackson Hole Aug 27–29, then jobs Sep 4 and CPI Sep 11.
What the government is doing
White House
WatchThe administration wants easier policy. Warsh has not pre-committed and dropped forward guidance. A public fight with the Chair is a gold bid and a duration hit.
Next
Keep the volume down into Jackson Hole. Any rate-cut demand the morning of the speech is noise — trade the Chair, not the tweet.
Market
Gold and TLT first. Equities wobble if it looks like a Fed-independence story.
Treasury / fiscal
RiskDeficit is still wide. Bessent is funding more in bills. The 10-year is the tell, not the speech. Tax-cut law adds to the decade's borrowing.
Next
Watch the term premium into September refunding. If TLT leaks while stocks hold, fiscal is the story, not the Fed.
Market
More issuance = higher long rates. That cheapens duration and can cap equity multiples even if the funds rate is unchanged.
Tariffs / trade
RiskSupreme Court blocked IEEPA emergency tariffs. Plan B is other statutes — product-specific, time-limited. Minutes say past pass-through is largely done.
Next
A fresh round is the inflation veto on a September cut. Watch executive actions, not campaign talk.
Market
Sticky core PCE, a firmer dollar, and import-sensitive earnings. Gold hates a dollar bid from this.
Congress / midterms
WatchNovember 3. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate. Affordability, tariffs, and immigration are the ballot.
Next
Markets usually fade election night and trade the composition the next session. Gridlock is not a crash.
Market
The 2027 policy path for taxes, spending, and Fed independence runs through who holds the gavel — not through one print.
How it hits the book
Equities
Do not addMinutes called out AI valuations and leverage. That is a veto on chasing SMH/QQQ into Warsh, not an order to dump a core index you already own.
Gold
Hold the metalPolicy uncertainty and a Chair who will not pre-commit is the bid. A hawkish Jackson Hole is the veto. GLD is the hedge, not GDX.
Bitcoin
Rails, not the coinJackson Hole's theme is financial innovation and payments. That can bid the wrappers (IBIT, CRCL). The coin still needs $60k. Do not confuse a symposium with a halving.
Dollar / yields
Hawks have a voteThree dissenters for a hike is not a majority, but it is a tell. 10-year 5.24%. A Warsh surprise that sounds tighter bids DXY and cheapens TLT.
Would bid the tape
Would hit the tape
Looking forward
Thu Aug 27
Jackson Hole opens
Kansas City Fed symposium. Theme: financial innovation — payments and policy.
Fri Aug 28 · ~10am ET
Warsh address
The policy-signal day. Gold, TLT, and DXY will tell you what he said before the headline does.
Tue Nov 3
US midterms
All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats. Affordability, tariffs, immigration. Trade the composition of Congress the next session — not election night.
Tue Oct 27
October FOMC
No SEP. Statement language still moves rates. First meeting after the inflation prints that follow Jackson Hole.
Tue Dec 8
December FOMC + SEP
Last dots of the year. The 2027 path gets written here unless the midterms rewrite fiscal first.
During the day
Why You Need to Pay Attention to the Bond Market (and These ETFs) Right Now
Investor allocations to bonds have plunged to near a 40-year low, right as the U.S. Treasury ramps up its reliance on short-term debt to finance soaring long-term yields.
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
Foreign Buyers Took 80% of the Treasury’s $39 Billion Auction
A record-breaking Treasury auction just flipped the usual script on who actually wants to own U.S. debt, and the answer points to something unusual happening at the long end of the yield curve.
Headline reads as a bid — flow, product, or demand.
Every Fed Official Backed September’s Hike. Most Want One More Before New Year’s
The Fed voted unanimously to raise rates in September, but the bigger question is what a surprise jobs report and an AI spending surge mean for the next meeting and for anyone holding SPY or TLT right now.
Headline reads as a bid — flow, product, or demand.
October Rate-Hike Odds Just Fell From 51% to 19% in One Week
Fed rate-hike odds swung violently in a single week, but the jobs data behind that swing raises as many questions as it answers, and long-bond investors may be celebrating too soon.
Headline reads as a hit — outflows, policy, or risk-off.
The Treasury Has to Sell $119 Billion of Bonds This Week at the Highest Yields Since 2002
The government needs buyers for a massive wall of long-term debt at borrowing costs not seen in over two decades, and weak demand at even one auction could deepen losses already punishing bond holders. Watch which buyers show up and which stay home.
Headline reads as a bid — flow, product, or demand.
July FOMC minutes printed today — 9–3 hold, three hawks wanted a hike
Funds rate stays 3.50–3.75%. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented for +25bp. Core PCE 3.3% in June. Equity premium near dot-com levels on AI enthusiasm. AI infrastructure financing flagged as a vulnerability. Tariff pass-through seen as largely complete.
The last written word before Jackson Hole. Valuation warning is a veto on adding beta, not a sell signal by itself.
Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 — Warsh keynote on financial innovation
Theme is payments and policy. Warsh has been light on forward guidance since taking the chair May 22. The speech is the live policy signal for gold, duration, and bitcoin rails — not tonight's minutes.
A Chair who talks less makes the one speech that much louder.
Minutes still pin some of the inflation overshoot on past tariffs and energy
Committee sees tariff pass-through largely done and a modest hit from newer duties. Energy from the Middle East conflict is the other supply shock. A fresh tariff round would reopen the inflation fight — that is the White House veto on a cut.
Fiscal and trade policy still leak into the Fed's reaction function.
After Jackson Hole the map is jobs (Sept 4), CPI (Sept 11), then the September FOMC with a SEP. Hold the regime until a print rewrites it.