S&P 500
769.06
+0.00%
Thursday, August 20/05:27:30 ET
Pre-marketTo open4:02:30
Session brief
Healthy enough to hold. Not cheap enough to chase.
S&P 500 bid 0.00% at 769.06. VIX 15.14. Price holds the full moving-average stack — the primary trend is up. Breadth mixed.
What to do
Buy orderly dips
→Keep the core. New risk waits for weakness.
→Prefer equal-weight and the sectors that are actually leading.
→If you missed the open, you are not late — you are early for the next dip.
S&P 500
769.06
+0.00%
Nasdaq 100
716.08
-0.00%
Russell 2000
301.72
-0.00%
Dow Jones
534.27
-0.00%
VIX
15.14
+1.68%
10-year yield
4.653%
+0.00%
Bitcoin
71,933
-0.00%
Gold
413.84
+0.00%
VanEck Semis
560.92
+0.00%
High yield
79.71
+0.00%
Chips · software · the print
Defensive560.92+0.00%5D -4.79%
Hold core SMH if you already own it. Do not add into NVIDIA on August 26. Early names are a watchlist, not a buy list this week.
Spot · ETFs · miners
Constructive71,933-0.00%5D +14.51%
Own the coin via IBIT. Add on weakness toward $60k, not on strength. Miners stay small.
Metal · miners · the dollar
Constructive413.84+0.00%5D +3.73%
Own the metal. Add on a dollar-up dip. Miners wait for Jackson Hole to pass.
Rules-based close note
End of day
The S&P 500 is up 0.00% at 769.06, pressed against the 52-week high. Growth and the index are moving in line. Russell 2000 -0.00%. VIX 15.14 (+1.7%). The 10-year is 4.65%. Sectors: Health Care leading (+0.0%); Real Estate lagging (-0.0%).
Into the close / overnight
Cash is not open yet. Use pre-market to set levels, not to guess the open. Stance: constructive.
Next session
Friday, August 21 opens toward Fri, Aug 21 · Close · Monthly options expiration. Dealer hedging can pin the index into the close, then unwind. Gap risk into Monday. Until then, trade the stance you already have — constructive — not a forecast of the print.
Weekly trend
S&P down 1.1% on the week. Growth is resting on the week — rotation, or fatigue. AI / semis -4.8%. Bitcoin +14.5%. Gold +3.7%. The weekly map is in the trend board below — use it, not a one-day mood, to size tomorrow.
Pull back or invest
The backdrop supports risk, but you do not need to pay up. Add on weakness. If you are under-invested, scale — do not sprint.
Flows
No clean rotation yet — sectors are moving as a blob. S&P volume is ordinary (0.9× the 20-day). Growth and the index are moving together. No rotation signal yet. IWM -0.00% · RSP -0.00%.
Watch overnight
Politics · Fed · government
Minutes are a hawkish hold. Jackson Hole is the event.
July minutes are out. The committee held 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan wanted a 25bp hike. Core PCE is 3.3%. They flagged equity valuations near dot-com-era premia on AI enthusiasm, and they named AI-infrastructure financing as a vulnerability. Tariff pass-through is described as largely complete; energy from the Middle East conflict is the other supply shock. That is a hawkish-leaning hold, not a cut. TLT +0.00% on the session. Dollar -0.23%. Gold +0.00% — still the policy hedge.
The call
Do not add equity beta on a 9–3 hold. Hold gold as the policy hedge. Wait for Warsh.
Policy path
Today
Minutes
Aug 27–29
Jackson Hole
Sep 4
Jobs
Sep 11
CPI
Sep 15–16
FOMC + SEP
Nov 3
Midterms
What the Fed is anticipated to do
Base case is hold. Hike is the tail the hawks keep alive. Cut is politics, not the committee.
Cut
The White House wants it. The data do not. Core PCE 3.3% is not a cut. Do not price one on a speech.
Hold (base)
Hold 3.50–3.75% at the September 15–16 FOMC unless the data force a move.
Hike (tail)
Three dissenters already wanted +25bp in July. Minutes: a hike is needed if inflation does not cool. Hot jobs (Sep 4) or hot CPI (Sep 11) reopen it.
What the government is doing
White House
WatchThe administration wants easier policy. Warsh has not pre-committed and dropped forward guidance. A public fight with the Chair is a gold bid and a duration hit.
Keep the volume down into Jackson Hole. Any rate-cut demand the morning of the speech is noise — trade the Chair, not the tweet.
Treasury / fiscal
RiskDeficit is still wide. Bessent is funding more in bills. The 10-year is the tell, not the speech. Tax-cut law adds to the decade's borrowing.
Watch the term premium into September refunding. If TLT leaks while stocks hold, fiscal is the story, not the Fed.
Tariffs / trade
RiskSupreme Court blocked IEEPA emergency tariffs. Plan B is other statutes — product-specific, time-limited. Minutes say past pass-through is largely done.
A fresh round is the inflation veto on a September cut. Watch executive actions, not campaign talk.
Congress / midterms
WatchNovember 3. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate. Affordability, tariffs, and immigration are the ballot.
Markets usually fade election night and trade the composition the next session. Gridlock is not a crash.
Looking forward
Thu Aug 27
Jackson Hole opens
Kansas City Fed symposium. Theme: financial innovation — payments and policy.
Fri Aug 28 · ~10am ET
Warsh address
The policy-signal day. Gold, TLT, and DXY will tell you what he said before the headline does.
Fri Sep 4 · 8:30am
Employment situation
Payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings. A hot wage print reopens hike talk.
Fri Sep 11 · 8:30am
CPI (August)
Core is the number. Headline is the headline. This print writes the SEP.
During the day
US debt tops $40 trillion as Treasury doubles bond buybacks to calm markets
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
US Treasury Just Doubled Size Of Liquidity Support Buyback — El-Erian Says Move Is More About Possibility Of Broader Deployment Of Yield Curve Control
Following the development, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by nearly six basis points to 4.65% while the 20-year yield fell by nine basis points to 5.18%.
Headline reads as a bid — flow, product, or demand.
Did Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Just Save the Bond Market? Probably Not — Here’s What Traders Need to Know.
Inside the Treasury Department announcement that temporarily calmed the longer end of the yield curve.
No clean catalyst or veto in the headline.
Tomorrow is claims at 8:30am, then the grind into Jackson Hole. Do not reposition the book on tonight's minutes. Warsh speaks next week. Gold and duration still hedge the path; do not add equity beta because the hawks lost the vote.
Trend pictures · 60 sessions
Five-day bid: Bitcoin +14.51%. Drag: AI / semis -4.79%. 5 of 6 hold the full 20/50/200 stack. 3 look stretched vs the 50-day — that is when new money has the worst expected value. Dashed line is the 50-day. The rail is the 52-week range with the 50-day and 200-day marked.
Overnight · what the open inherits
S&P futures
7,724
-0.07%
Nasdaq futures
29,518
+0.02%
Russell futures
3,035
-0.16%
Gold futures
4,548.60
+1.32%
Crude
86.53
+0.82%
Dollar
98.60
-0.23%
SPY
769.06
+0.00%
52-week range
Full stack · stretched
Full stack, but stretched +2.4% vs the 50-day. Trend is up — new money waits.
5D -1.13% · 20D +4.18% · RSI 70
QQQ
716.08
-0.00%
52-week range
Full stack
Price holds the 20 / 50 / 200-day. Trend is intact (+0.4% vs 50-day).
5D -2.18% · 20D +3.49% · RSI 66
IWM
301.72
-0.00%
52-week range
Full stack
Price holds the 20 / 50 / 200-day. Trend is intact (+1.8% vs 50-day).
5D -0.59% · 20D +3.30% · RSI 67
SMH
560.92
+0.00%
52-week range
200 only
Only the 200-day still holds. The intermediate trend is damaged — do not add size.
5D -4.79% · 20D -3.32% · RSI 58
BTC-USD
71,933
-0.00%
52-week range
Full stack · stretched
Full stack, but stretched +11.7% vs the 50-day. Trend is up — new money waits.
5D +14.51% · 20D +14.61% · RSI 81
GLD
413.84
+0.00%
52-week range
Full stack · stretched
Full stack, but stretched +8.3% vs the 50-day. Trend is up — new money waits.
5D +3.73% · 20D +11.39% · RSI 80
Weekly trend · cross-asset map
S&P 500 week -1.13%, above the 50-day. AI / semis (SMH) -4.79% on the week. Bitcoin +14.51% on the week. Gold +3.73% on the week. Inside the index, Health Care leads today; Real Estate is last.
| Asset | 1D | 5D | 20D | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500neutral | +0.0% | -1.1% | +4.2% | +2.4% | +8.8% |
| Nasdaq 100neutral | -0.0% | -2.2% | +3.5% | +0.4% | +9.8% |
| Russell 2000neutral | -0.0% | -0.6% | +3.3% | +1.8% | +11.9% |
| AI / semisbear | +0.0% | -4.8% | -3.3% | -4.8% | +20.3% |
| Bitcoinbull | -0.0% | +14.5% | +14.6% | +11.7% | +4.3% |
| Goldbull | +0.0% | +3.7% | +11.4% | +8.3% | +0.2% |
| US Dollarbear | -0.2% | -1.4% | -2.4% | -1.8% | -0.6% |
| 10-year yieldneutral | +0.0% | +0.3% | -1.1% | +1.7% | +7.6% |
| High yieldneutral | +0.0% | -0.1% | +0.6% | +0.1% | -0.6% |
| Technologyneutral | +0.0% | -3.7% | +2.9% | +0.4% | +16.1% |
| Financialsneutral | +0.0% | -1.3% | +3.0% | +2.8% | +8.0% |
| Energybull | -0.0% | +4.1% | +7.1% | +10.8% | +18.2% |
| Utilitiesneutral | -0.0% | -0.0% | -4.7% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
Regime
Mixed tape
Growth vs small-caps is not stretched and the index week is quiet. No award for forcing a theme.
Sector rotation map · today vs 20 days
Upper-right is leading both today and on the month. Lower-left is leaking on both. Upper-left is a one-day bounce in a downtrend.
Next weekInto next week the map is simple: NVIDIA after the close Wednesday, then Jackson Hole Thursday–Saturday. Do not invent a new personality in between.
Volume · rotation · flows
S&P volume is ordinary (0.9× the 20-day). Growth and the index are moving together. No rotation signal yet. IWM -0.00% · RSP -0.00%.
Money in
No sector is attracting a real bid.
Money out
No sector is being dumped on volume.
S&P 500
SPY
Quiet.
+0.00%
0.9× vol · 30.9B
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
Quiet.
-0.00%
0.9× vol · 25.5B
Russell 2000
IWM
Quiet.
-0.00%
0.8× vol · 4.5B
Equal-weight
RSP
Quiet.
-0.00%
1.0× vol · 1.7B
AI / semis
SMH
Quiet.
+0.00%
0.8× vol · 4.9B
Bitcoin ETF
IBIT
Quiet.
+0.00%
3.6× vol · 5.4B
Gold
GLD
Quiet.
+0.00%
1.9× vol · 7.0B
Gold miners
GDX
Quiet.
-0.00%
2.0× vol · 4.3B
High yield
HYG
Quiet.
+0.00%
0.9× vol · 2.4B
Long Treasuries
TLT
Quiet.
+0.00%
1.5× vol · 4.3B
Weighted into appetite
S&P trend
Above 50-day
+2.39% vs 50-day
Price holds the full moving-average stack — the primary trend is up.
Volatility
15.14
+1.7% today · 12th percentile of 1y
Calm tape. Helpful for dips — dangerous if you chase extended names.
Breadth
Breadth mixed
IWM -0.00% · RSP -0.00%
Breadth is not confirming a new leg yet. Wait for small caps to catch up before adding risk.
Credit
+0.00% HYG
+0.3% vs IG over 20d
Credit is quiet. Not a veto, not a green light.
Rates
4.653%
+0.0% on the 10-year
Rates are not the story today.
Dollar
98.60
-0.23% DXY
A softer dollar is a tailwind for risk assets, commodities, and foreign earners.
Gold
+0.00%
GLD 413.84
Gold is quiet relative to the equity tape.
Growth vs value
Equal-weight / value leading
QQQ -0.00% vs SPY +0.00%
Growth and the index are moving together.
Today vs SPY 20d
Health Care
+0.0%
Discretionary
+0.0%
Industrials
+0.0%
Financials
+0.0%
Technology
+0.0%
Communication
+0.0%
Materials
-0.0%
Utilities
-0.0%
Staples
-0.0%
Energy
-0.0%
Real Estate
-0.0%
Chips · software · the print
Do not let NVIDIA's print become your personality.
VanEck Semis 560.92+0.00%5D -4.79%0.8× vol
SMH
560.92
+0.00%
0.8× vol
NVDA
217.56
+0.00%
0.8× vol
AMD
466.42
-0.00%
0.7× vol
TSM
412.09
+0.00%
0.7× vol
MU
937.11
-0.00%
0.7× vol
CEG
274.17
-0.00%
0.9× vol
VRT
261.00
0.00%
1.0× vol
What to do · tonight into tomorrow
Hold core SMH if you already own it. Do not add into NVIDIA on August 26. Early names are a watchlist, not a buy list this week.
End of day
The AI sleeve (VanEck Semis) is up 0.00% at 560.92, -4.79% on the week. NVIDIA +0.00%. AMD -0.00%. TSMC +0.00%. Relative volume 0.8× — ordinary conviction. The near-term catalyst is NVIDIA after the close Aug 26. Until then, treat rips as positioning, not as a new cycle.
Next session
Into tomorrow: no AI-specific print. Trade the existing range. The real event is NVIDIA after the close Wednesday — do not size a new position in front of it. Early names (MU, CEG, VRT, ALAB) are research, not a chase this week.
Weekly trendSMH is -4.79% on the week. NVIDIA -3.44% over five sessions. That is digestion, not a new cycle — unless Aug 26 guidance breaks. Do not average down a broken 50-day in front of the print.
What could bid it
Yahoo Finance · Today
Investors will watch margins, rising HBM costs, China sales and the Rubin Ultra product roadmap.
Yahoo Finance · Today
Nebius just announced its third major debt issue in a year to support its massive AI infrastructure expansion.
NVIDIA reports Q2 FY27 after the close on August 26
Desk calendar · This week
Street is around $93–95B on the Blackwell ramp. Data-center guidance and China matter more than the beat. SMH, AMD, TSM, and AVGO will gap with it. Do not add into the number.
What could hit it
Circularity and custom silicon remain the bear case
Desk note · This week
Vendor financing, hyperscaler ASICs, and a credit backstop around the training complex keep valuation compression in play. That is a veto on chasing strength, not on holding a core SMH position you already own.
Yahoo Finance · Today
TSMC and ASML are two of the more important companies in the chip realm.
Looking forward
Wed Aug 26 · after close
NVIDIA earnings
catalystGuidance on data-center and China. The whole SMH complex gaps with it. Do not add into the print.
Thu–Sat Aug 27–29
Jackson Hole · financial innovation theme
watchNot an AI print, but a liquidity print. Duration, the dollar, and risk appetite reprice the multiple on chips.
Ongoing
Hyperscaler custom silicon + capex circularity
bearishThe bear case does not need a new headline. If Google/Amazon/Microsoft keep pulling training onto their own ASICs, NVDA's multiple compresses even with 'fine' numbers.
Next foundry print
TSMC utilization / CoWoS capacity
catalystIf the foundry is tight, the pick-and-shovel bid holds. If it is not, the AI build-out is digesting.
Vehicles, not edges
VanEck Semiconductor SMH
ETF560.92
+0.00%5D -4.79%
Cleanest one-ticket for the AI silicon stack — NVDA, TSM, AVGO, ASML.
Risk. Top-heavy.
iShares Semiconductor SOXX
ETF519.67
+0.00%5D -5.64%
Same neighborhood as SMH, slightly different weights.
Risk. Same factor as SMH.
Global X Robotics & AI BOTZ
ETF36.38
-0.00%5D -3.81%
The 'robots and factory AI' sleeve, not the GPU melt-up.
Risk. Can sit still while NVDA rips.
Watchlist — not a buy list
Micron MU
Early937.11
-0.00%5D -1.34%
HBM memory is the less-owned pick-and-shovel.
Risk. Memory is a brutal cycle.
Constellation Energy CEG
Early274.17
-0.00%5D -1.60%
The power behind the AI build.
Risk. It still trades like a utility on rate days.
Vertiv VRT
Early261.00
0.00%5D -9.08%
Cooling and power infrastructure for the same campuses.
Risk. Orders can pause as fast as they ramped.
Astera Labs ALAB
Early289.02
+0.00%5D -10.46%
Connectivity silicon inside the rack.
Risk. Customer concentration and a rich multiple.
Thesis, risk, and the confirm for every line are on the full AI desk. None of this is a recommendation.
Spot · ETFs · miners
Own the coin. Rent the miners.
Bitcoin 71,933-0.00%5D +14.51%2.8× vol
BTC-USD
71,933
-0.00%
2.8× vol
IBIT
38.78
+0.00%
3.6× vol
MSTR
104.25
0.00%
2.8× vol
COIN
160.20
+0.00%
2.1× vol
CRCL
78.59
+0.00%
2.0× vol
MARA
9.650
+0.00%
1.5× vol
What to do · tonight into tomorrow
Own the coin via IBIT. Add on weakness toward $60k, not on strength. Miners stay small.
End of day
Bitcoin is 71,933 (+0.00% in the US cash session via IBIT, +14.51% on the week). IBIT, the cleanest spot ETF, +0.00% on 3.6× volume. Strategy (MSTR) 0.00% — the levered proxy. Coinbase +0.00%. Flows, not Twitter: watch whether IBIT volume expands with a green day. A bounce on empty volume is not a regime change. $60k is the line.
Next session
Tomorrow: the ETF flow print from today's session lands after the cash close. Claims Thursday and Jackson Hole next week are the macro tells. Until $60k breaks or IBIT volumes expand with a push, this is a range — stage, don't swing.
Weekly trendBitcoin is +14.51% on the week. IBIT +8.08%. Weekly trend is a range until ETF creations or $60k decide it. Miners will amplify whichever way that break goes — that is why they are a satellite.
What could bid it
Yahoo Finance · Today
Bitcoin prices surged above $69,000 for the first time since early June after President Donald Trump met with top crypto executives in the White House.
Yahoo Finance · Yesterday
Shares of bitcoin development company Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) jumped 12.8% in the afternoon session after a broad rally in crypto-linked stocks was fueled by a surge in Bitcoin's price and growing optimism around U.S. cryptocurrency regulation.
Yahoo Finance · Yesterday
The White House meeting put crypto regulation, prediction markets and Hyperliquid’s U.S. future in the spotlight.
Yahoo Finance · Today
Bitcoin was in demand again after a strong Wednesday after-hours session, which saw it move from $64,000 to briefly touch $70,000 for the first time since June as investors returned to riskier assets. In early trading on Thursday, the cryptocurrency was changing hands for $69,931.49, up...
What could hit it
Yahoo Finance · Today
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained ‘neutral’ on SPY and QQQ.
Yahoo Finance · Today
The U.S. Treasury Department unexpectedly announced Wednesday that it would at least double government debt buybacks, expected to take effect Sept. 9.
Looking forward
Every US session · ~4–6pm ET
Spot ETF creation / redemption print
catalystIBIT volume during the cash session is the live tell. The official flow tape lands after the close. One day does not make a regime; five days does.
Thu–Sat Aug 27–29
Jackson Hole · Chair Warsh
watchBitcoin has been trading liquidity and the dollar, not a white paper. A hawkish frame hits IBIT with gold; a confused frame is a bid.
This range
Weekly close vs $60,000
bearishDesk line. A US-session weekly close under it with ETF outflows is the bearish tell. A reclaim on rising IBIT volume is the first repair.
September → Q4
Seasonality and the 'Q4 bottom' debate
bearishSome models still talk $49–52k. That is a scenario, not a target. Staging only if ETF flows and $60k both fail — not because a thread said so.
Vehicles, not edges
iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT
ETF38.78
+0.00%5D +8.08%
Cleanest spot vehicle in a brokerage account.
Risk. It will track bitcoin down as honestly as up.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin FBTC
ETF59.60
+0.00%5D +8.19%
Second-liquid spot ETF.
Risk. Same as IBIT.
ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ARKB
ETF22.70
-0.00%5D +8.10%
Spot ETF with a smaller AUM.
Risk. Wider spreads on stress days.
Watchlist — not a buy list
Circle CRCL
Early78.59
+0.00%5D +4.26%
USDC issuer.
Risk. Policy headlines gap it 8% in a session and give it back the next.
Riot Platforms RIOT
Early19.38
+0.00%5D +0.88%
Public miner with hash-rate torque.
Risk. Energy, hashprice, dilution.
MARA Holdings MARA
Early9.650
+0.00%5D +4.78%
Large public miner — high-beta bitcoin with hash-rate torque.
Risk. Energy, hashprice, dilution, and operational misses.
CleanSpark CLSK
Early11.67
-0.00%5D +1.30%
Smaller miner, more torque, more energy-story.
Risk. Illiquid relative to IBIT, financing risk, and a single-asset business.
Thesis, risk, and the confirm for every line are on the full Bitcoin desk. None of this is a recommendation.
Metal · miners · the dollar
Own the metal. Rent the miners.
Gold 413.84+0.00%5D +3.73%1.9× vol
GLD
413.84
+0.00%
1.9× vol
IAU
84.84
+0.00%
2.1× vol
GDX
97.33
-0.00%
2.0× vol
GDXJ
126.55
-0.00%
1.7× vol
SLV
60.01
+0.00%
1.4× vol
FNV
251.07
-0.00%
1.3× vol
What to do · tonight into tomorrow
Own the metal. Add on a dollar-up dip. Miners wait for Jackson Hole to pass.
End of day
GLD, the liquid gold ETF, is 413.84 (+0.00% today, +3.73% on the week). Miners (GDX) -0.00% — torque is not confirming. Silver +0.00%. Dollar -0.23%. 10-year 4.65%. The metal is trading Jackson Hole positioning. A softer dollar and softer real yields keep the bid. The opposite is the veto.
Next session
Next session follows the same map: labor data, then Jackson Hole. Miners only if GDX is beating GLD — otherwise own the metal and wait. A hawkish Warsh is the veto; a confused one extends the bid.
Weekly trendGLD is +3.73% on the week. Miners +10.26%. The weekly bid is real. Do not chase it into Warsh — add on a dollar-up dip if you are under-owned.
What could bid it
Yahoo Finance · Yesterday
The U.S. Treasury's plan to double its long-term bond buybacks pulled yields lower, sending spot gold up by $100 and triggering a massive surge in gold-mining equities.
Yahoo Finance · Yesterday
The gold price jumped and the GDX gold miner ETF surged on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's move to cap long-term bond yields, which fell.
Yahoo Finance · This week
Newmont Corp has returned 66% in the year since we recommended it as a Barron’s stock pick, handily beating out the 30% increase in the over the period. For Newmont, the historic rally in precious metals has certainly helped, as the price of gold climbed to a record $5,589 an ounce earlier this year. Newmont is positioned to continue capitalizing on its
Yahoo Finance · This week
Gold surged after a bruising jobs report, but GLDM still sits well below its 2026 record, and that gap creates a very different conversation than buying bullion at a peak.
What could hit it
Yahoo Finance · Today
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose slightly Wednesday as Treasury yields fell. Moderna and Merck fueled big gains for biotechs, drugmakers.
Yahoo Finance · Yesterday
Gold, as measured by SPDR Gold Shares (NASDAQ:GLD), surged 3% Wednesday after the U.S. Treasury unexpectedly doubled the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, sending yields and the dollar sharply lower. The move came a day after the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, hammering rate-sensitive tech stocks as borrowing costs surged. Wedne
Looking forward
Today · 2:00pm ET
July FOMC minutes
watchLast written read before Jackson Hole. Inflation paragraphs, not the boilerplate. Gold will twitch with the dollar.
Thu Aug 20 · 8:30am ET
Initial jobless claims
catalystSoft labor is a gold bid if it does not come with a firm dollar. A hot claims print into Warsh is a headwind.
Thu–Sat Aug 27–29
Jackson Hole · Chair Warsh address
catalystThe event. Policy uncertainty has been the metal's friend. A hawkish 'not constrained by market prices' sequel is the veto.
Fri Sep 4 · 8:30am ET
August employment situation
watchAfter the symposium. Confirms or kills the 'softening labor + cautious Fed' mix gold has been pricing.
Vehicles, not edges
SPDR Gold Shares GLD
ETF413.84
+0.00%5D +3.73%
The default gold vehicle.
Risk. Real yields and a firm dollar.
iShares Gold Trust IAU
ETF84.84
+0.00%5D +3.74%
Same metal as GLD, lower fee.
Risk. Same as GLD.
VanEck Gold Miners GDX
ETF97.33
-0.00%5D +10.26%
Senior miners — torque on gold with operating leverage.
Risk. Costs, jurisdiction, and beta.
Watchlist — not a buy list
Franco-Nevada FNV
Early251.07
-0.00%5D +8.42%
Royalty/streaming — the early-quality way to own miners without operating a pit.
Risk. Still de-rates with gold.
Wheaton Precious Metals WPM
Early147.43
+0.00%5D +11.81%
The other streamer.
Risk. Silver lag and a gold dip still hit it.
Thesis, risk, and the confirm for every line are on the full Gold desk. None of this is a recommendation.
Thu, Aug 208:30 AM
Initial jobless claims
DataWeekly labor-market pulse. A sharp rise would re-price the September FOMC.
Fri, Aug 219:45 AM
S&P Global flash PMI
DataFirst look at August activity. Sub-50 on services would rattle the soft-landing tape.
Fri, Aug 21Close
Monthly options expiration
OpexDealer hedging can pin the index into the close, then unwind. Gap risk into Monday.
Wed, Aug 26After close
NVIDIA earnings
AIThe AI complex is pinned to this print. Data-center guidance and China are the tell — not the beat. SMH, AMD, TSM, and AVGO will gap with it.
Thu, Aug 2710:00 AM
Jackson Hole symposium opens
FedKansas City Fed, Aug 27–29. Theme is financial innovation. Chair Warsh's speech is the event for gold, bitcoin, and duration.
Fri, Aug 2810:00 AM
Jackson Hole — Warsh address (typical window)
FedThis is the policy-signal day. Do not add risk into the speech unless you are trading the reaction, not the forecast.
Apple
AAPL
316.83
+0.00%
UnitedHealth
UNH
388.61
+0.00%
Tesla
TSLA
351.12
+0.00%
Amazon
AMZN
265.84
+0.00%
Meta
META
546.03
-0.00%
Broadcom
AVGO
362.48
-0.00%
JPMorgan
JPM
357.26
-0.00%
Alphabet
GOOGL
344.72
-0.00%